Unseeded Karolina Muchova stunned top seed Aryna Sabalenka with a 7-6(5), 2-6, 6-4 win in the China Open quarterfinals, snapping her 15-match-winning streak. Muchova has now won her last three meetings with Sabalenka.
Muchova was ranked World No. 9 at this time last year before an injury made her unable to compete in the Asian swing. Now ranked World No. 49, she is returning to form after defeating two of her last three Top 10 opponents. She is no stranger to knocking off top ranked players, as this win boosted her to 5-2 in her career against players ranked in the Top 2.
Both players refused to budge in the first set, and they held every service game. The first game was one of the most competitive of the set, going three deuces and resulting in a Sabalenka win. Muchova played aggressively. Her frequent pushing up to the net after serves possibly made Sabalenka uncomfortable, as it was the first time this tournament Sabalenka was unable to break her opponent’s serve in a set. Meanwhile, Sabalenka was perfectly placing her drop shot, freezing Muchova multiple times and rendering her defenseless against it.
The players battled back and forth, with four games in the set going to deuce but all ending in wins for the server. Muchova held in a swift 12th game, sending the set to a tie-break, the first of the tournament for both players. The players went point for point before Muchova won 7-5 to take the set.
It was the first time Sabalenka had lost a set since August 31. She won every set in her previous China Open matches and had never fallen behind during a set. Having to catch up for the first time this tournament, she proved to be resilient, dominating the second set from start to finish. After splitting the first two games, Sabalenka broke Muchova in the third for the first break of the match from either player. She followed it up by winning the next game at love to give her a 3-1 lead. After Muchova held in the next game, Sabalenka won the final three – including a second break in the seventh game – to win the set. Muchova’s strategy of pushing the net was far less effective in the set, with Sabalenka winning multiple of those points by hitting it past her and painting the baseline. Like Sabalenka, this was Muchova’s first lost set of the tournament.
The script flipped completely in the third set. The set contained five breaks, more than double the previous two sets combined. In a battle of wills, Muchova proved to want it more. She was broken in two of her first three service games and went down 2-4 to begin the set. From that point on, she took full control of the match. Muchova dismantled Sabalenka in the final four games, breaking her serve twice and winning eight consecutive points to win the match, handing Sabalenka her first loss since Aug. 10. After the final point, Sabalenka slammed her racket on the court in frustration as her winning streak met its demise.
The win sends Muchova to her second career WTA 1000 semifinal and her first in over a year. Her previous semifinal was in Cincinnati last year when she lost in the final to Coco Gauff.
Her next match in the semifinals will prove a very different challenge as she clashes with Chinese national favorite World No. 7 Qinwen Zheng.
— Reporting by Ryan Loomer
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